Scientists at the UK's National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in Southampton are to begin critical research into forecasting a major climate change juncture - the potential collapse of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre. More than £11 million has contributed to the funding, from the UK's Advanced Research and Invention Agency. The NOC will lead progression of "novel and innovative new ways" to detect early warning signs of an alteration in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre.
Situated just below Greenland and Iceland, the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is a "key component of the global ocean's circulation system", in which heat is transported around the planet, helping to "regulate temperatures in Europe and North America"
The potential collapse of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre could have a major effect on our weather, food and security. However, existing climate models and ocean observations have been described as "too limited to accurately forecast a tipping point which could signal its collapse" The funding which forms part of ARIA's five year £81m Forecasting Tipping Points programme cover eight distinct projects, three of them are being driven by NOC's "world-leading scientists" are is worth more than £7 million.
One of the projects has been described as "ambitious" and has been praised for its use of novel Earth observation platforms including airships and other high in altitude pseudo-satellities. The second project will "unlock the potential" of existing international undersea communications cables to become a vast sensor network, this will start in the North Atlantic.
The third project will use the developing technologies of artificial intelligence (AI) and other similar models to "push the limits" of observing existing oceans and to transform their ability to detect the earliest warning signs of a Subpolar Gyre collapse, which would include identifying gaps and any uncertain data.
The NOC is backing an additional five Subpolar Gyre focused projects, led by more organisations and bodies, with over £4 million provided in funding.
NOC Chief Scientist Professor Penny Holliday said, "This transformative funding from ARIA comes at a critical moment for ocean and climate science, helping to fulfil an urgent need to address gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points.
“NOC will be at the forefront of this ambitious programme developing pioneering innovative approaches—from AI-driven modelling to revolutionary ocean observation technologies—to bridge those knowledge gaps.
“By harnessing our world-leading science and pioneering technology, we will lead and collaborate on multiple projects to enhance our ability to detect early warning signs and better understand the future of our changing ocean."
The projects which are led by the NOC are subject to final contract negotiations. These projects include; Full Ocean Fibre, Aerial Experimental Remote which can sense Ocean Salinity, heaT, Advection and Thermohaline Shifts (AEROSTATS) and Subpolar gyre Observations, models and Artificial Intelligence to Resolve Tipping points and provide Early Warning Detection (SORTED).
Full Ocean Fibre will partner alongside National Physical Laboratory to target "the use of undersea cables used for telecommunications and forming the backbone of the internet to seafloor sensors across thousands of kilometres."
“Full Ocean Fibre will develop the acoustic and fingerprinting techniques needed to identify ocean processes and provide an unprecedented view of the deep North Atlantic from existing cables,” said Dr Carl Spingys who is leading the project. “This project sets the scene for a next-generation ocean and climate observing network enabled by the global network of subsea cables.”
AEROSTATS is an "ambitious airborne earth observation project" with focus on observing "fine-scale interactions between air, ocean and ice in the Greenland sea ice margins." The project will include investigating the usage of airborne platforms such as "airships or high-altitude pseudo-satellites to create cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities, with partners NOVELTIS, Radarmetrics and Pixalytics."
“This is a truly bold airborne earth observation project,” said project lead Professor Christine Gommenginger. “Our vision is cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities that support early warning of a potential Subpolar Gyre shutdown. With partners across diverse sectors, we’re a cross-disciplinary group bridging technology, climate science and a commitment to tackling climate challenges through innovation.”
SORTED's aim is to "transform the ability to detect and monitor the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse by pushing the spatiotemporal capabilities of existing observational records" What has been termed as "a novel combination of AI" along with tipping point knowledge from models will assist in SORTED's main objectives. Critical gaps will also be indentified and uncertainties in ocean datasets and make recommendations on the observations "still needed to build robust early warning systems for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse, with partners University of Southampton and University of Bordeaux."
“Circulation in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre is thought to be moving towards a collapse but, climate models and ocean observations are too limited to accurately forecast these tipping points,” said Dr Alejandra Sanchez-Franks. “We will be using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models to push the spatiotemporal limitations of existing observational records and to underpin the robust early warning systems needed for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse.”
The scientists work at the NOC will be heavily involved in five additional projects, which also focus on the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre. These are; POLEMIX, which is led by the University of Southampton, TIMBER, led by the University of East Anglia, PROMOTE, led by the University of Reading, VERIFY, led by the University of Leeds and GRAIL, led by British Antarctic Survey.
These projects cover "a wide range of innovation and collaboration, from a new proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to predicting tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.
They will also involve improving earth system models, creating digital twins to test early warning systems and using robotics to gather data in Antarctic regions."
